Type:News
Region:Asia, Caribbean, Central America and Mexico, EU, Middle East, non-EU, South America
Language:English
Published:2025-05-10
Last updated:2025-05-09
Views:93
SGS INSPIRE attended the Argus Energy Forum on April 29, 2025, in Lima, Peru. This event serves as a meeting place for fuel stakeholders in both public and private sectors to assess ongoing developments and exchange insights with global companies to tackle future industry challenges.
Attendees included , , ,, , , , , , and the Peru's , among others.
Some particularly relevant perspectives were as follows:
Global
The price of Brent North Sea Dated is expected to fluctuate between USD 65 and USD 75 per barrel in the next two years.
Liquid fuels
•Economic measures by the U.S. government would impact global oil demand by approximately 1 million barrels per day by 2026/2027, primarily diesel
•Despite the downward trend in gasoline and diesel consumption in the U.S., kilometers traveled continue to increase. In contrast, the progressive closure of refining capacity continues, partly due to the electrification of fleets and the increase in the use of biofuels
•Russian diesel's main destinations are Africa, Europe and Latin America, followed by Asia and the Middle East
•According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a new was established in the Mediterranean, starting May 1, 2025. This reduced the sulfur limit in marine fuel to 0.10% m/m, significantly impacting global maritime logistics
•The IMO approved the creation of a new ECA in the North-East Atlantic Ocean. This has been submitted by all 27 EU member states, the UK, and the European Commission. The new ECA will cover the territorial seas and exclusive economic zones of the Faroe Islands, France, Greenland, Iceland, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and the UK. It will serve as a link between existing ECAs in the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Seas and connect them to those recently approved in the Norwegian Sea and Canadian Arctic
Gaseous fuels
•U.S. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports reached 65 million tons in 2024, with significant growth in shipments to China, which accounted for 27% of the export share, while Latin America had a 15% share. However, due to a tariff war with the U.S., China will have to continue importing LPG and possibly turn to the Middle East, affecting the U.S. market share in Asia
•U.S. LPG production will account for the most global growth through 2030
Biofuels
•Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will drive global biofuel demand by 2035
•HVO and SAF production capacity will exceed demand until 2029, when stricter European policies with the advancement of the will boost demand
•By 2030, Asia-Pacific and Latin America are expected to be net exporters of HVO and SAF, while Europe and North America are expected to remain net importers
•In 2024, the U.S. and Europe imported large volumes of used cooking oil (UCO) from Asia-Pacific, especially China
•In Europe, new legislation is expected to strengthen SAF demand. The majority of the volume should be UCO-based, with some tallow-based
•Biodiesel demand in Singapore is growing due to the decarbonization of marine fuels. Malaysia imports Chinese biodiesel due to limited supply and high local costs
Latin America and the Caribbean
Export potential for Guyanese crude oil to the in Nigeria, underscoring the importance of Latin America in global energy flows.
Liquid fuels
•In 2025, Russia will continue to compete with the U.S. to supply clean oil refining products, primarily in Brazil, Chile, Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia, Bolivia and Paraguay
•Diesel imports from Canada to South America increased by 157% in 2024 compared with 2023, a trend that continues in 2025 when a 24% increase is expected, totaling 912 million liters. This only represents 2% of total diesel imports from South America, Central America and the Caribbean (the U.S.'s leading supplier). However, it represents 13% in Peru and 4% in Argentina, according to SGS INSPIRE estimates. Canadian diesel exports from January to April 2025 were primarily directed to Peru (66%), followed by Ecuador (18%), Argentina (11%) and Chile (5%)
•In 2025, and from Canada were the leading diesel sellers to importers in South America, while Imperial Oil and Trafigura also played an essential role in 2024. Canadian diesel typically has a higher cetane number and better climatic properties, which improves product quality
•In Peru, 64% of diesel sales correspond to imported diesel; imports represent 27% of gasoline sales
Gaseous fuels
•China's imposition of a 124% tariff on U.S. LPG imports redirects trade flows, consolidating Latin America and the Caribbean as a strategic market for the sale of export surpluses
Biofuels
•To test demand, Latin America continues to expand its HVO production through co-processing, including by
•SAF and HVO are offered in Brazil in some blending grades in jet fuel and diesel for voluntary consumers. Some SAF volumes are imported from countries with more advanced mandates
South American diesel imports from Canada, 2017- 2025
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Source: SGS INSPIRE compilation, 2025
For more information on the forecasts, access the SGS INSPIRE .