SGS INSPIRE's 300-pages report Global biofuels outlook to 2030 analyzes the policy driving biofuel demand per feedstock and describes the current biofuel market in Asia, Europe, Latin America and North America. It offers biofuel demand projection per region until 2030 and a global summary of the key developments.
Summary of the report
Our biofuels outlook to 2030 is far from uniform across different regions. There are numerous factors affecting these diverse regional trends, but most important ones are related with regions’ ambitions to become self-sufficient in energy supply for the transport sector and the level of their commitment to increasing the exploitation of renewable energies at the expense of fossil fuels.
Europe is currently the biggest consumer of bio-based diesel (i.e., biodiesel called Fatty Acid Methyl Ester or FAME and renewable diesel or HVO) in the world. This is driven by the EU’s targets for renewable energy in transportation coupled with a dominant share of diesel in this sector. Both factors will continue through 2030, resulting in increased demand for bio-based diesel, from 17.9 million tonnes (20.6 billion liters) in 2020 to 22.9 million tonnes (27.1 billion liters) in 2030. It must be noted however, that the increase is expected solely in HVO demand, whereas demand for FAME will stay relatively stable. Our study reveals an important dimension in Europe’s future supply and demand of fuels, that differentiates Europe from other regions of the world, which is decreasing consumption of liquid fuels by 2030. Within decreasing fuels consumption, the share of renewable energy including biofuels will obviously grow. Liquid biofuels will achieve 11.2% in total gasoline pool and 17.3% in diesel pool.
Asia-Oceania, with almost 9 million tonnes (10.2 billion liters), is the second biggest consumer of biodiesel in the world. By 2030 this region will outpace any other region in consumption of biodiesel, with demand of almost 23.4 million tonnes (26.8 billion liters), including 1.6 million tonnes (1.8 billion liters) of HVO. Asia’s demand for bio-based diesel will be met almost entirely by its supply with projected 25.5 million tonnes (29.1 billion liters), provided high utilization rates. Asia is, and will continue to be, the biggest diesel consumer in the world. High biodiesel consumption in the region is mainly driven by biofuels mandates in vegetable oil producing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia with palm oil as a dominant feedstock.
In Latin America where, along Asia, the growth in consumption of diesel by 2030 is projected to be the highest in the world, demand for biodiesel will grow as well from 7.4 million tonnes (8.4 billion liters) currently to 12.7 million tonnes (14.5 billion liters) by 2030. We do not project any significant production or use of HVO products, contrary to other parts of the world, especially Europe and North America.
In North America, the increasing consumption of fuels in transportation continues, also entailing biofuels consumption. The most visible growth will be in HVO demand from 2.8 million tonnes (3.2 billion liters) in 2020 to 7.5 million tonnes (8.6 billion tonnes) in 2030, outpacing the European demand for this product (7.3 million tonnes or 8.3 billion liters by 2030).
On gasoline side, North America is and will continue to be, the biggest consumer of fossil gasoline and bio-based gasoline (435 million tonnes (580.9 billion liters) and 50.9 million tonnes (64.5 billion liters) by 2030, respectively). Increasing domestic ethanol production will be sufficient to meet domestic demand. Corm is the main feedstock for ethanol production.
Asia-Oceania is the second biggest gasoline consumer in the world; however, ethanol consumption is a small fraction of the total gasoline pool. It makes up currently approximately 2.6%. Although by 2030 demand for ethanol will double, driven by the national policies promoting ethanol mandates in India, China and Thailand, the share in total gasoline pool will not exceed 3.5%. Feedstocks for ethanol production varies and they include molasses, sugarcane, cassava, grains and others.
Europe’s consumption of ethanol will increase from 4.3 million tonnes (5.5 billion liters) in 2020 to 7 million tonnes (8.9 billion liters) by 2030 leading to the share of ethanol in total gasoline pool of approximately 11.2%, up from today's 5.9%. Bio-based gasoline will be increasingly produced from advanced feedstocks, such as forest and agricultural residues, while currently it is mainly produced from corn and wheat.
Latin America is the second biggest consumer of ethanol in the world and it will keep this position until 2030. Demand will grow from 24.5 million tonnes (31 billion liters) in 2020 to 37 million tonnes (46.8 billion liters) by 2030. Ethanol blend rate is expected to rise to 43% in 2030, mainly driven by ethanol blended gasoline and demand for hydrous ethanol in Brazil. Ethanol in Latin America is mainly produced from sugarcane, small production comes also from corn. There will be no significant change in feedstocks by 2030.
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